Top 10 growth & profitability disruptors in 2023

A potential recession, geopolitical instability, and tightening monetary policy are undoubtedly concerns for business leaders as we begin 2023. But opportunities always exist, even in challenging times, and 2023 will be no different.

Businesses must improve their ability to manage uncertainty this year, and successfully address several factors causing disruption in markets. In the face of these disruptors, businesses will need to rethink their strategies and embrace rapid transformation. As we continue to navigate an uneven economy and shifting political winds, we must look to the lessons of last year to help us understand and prepare for what’s ahead.

For the second year in a row, we’ve asked our experts to identify the top 10 disruptive forces that will impact business growth and profitability in the coming year, as well as potential initiatives to combat them.

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Consumers will have less discretionary spending

Strategic initiatives to consider:

With an economic slowdown on the horizon, consumer buying patterns will inevitably change. The excess cash that powered consumers over the past year will likely dwindle and their spending will decrease. While interest hikes and decreased spending will put us on a healthier path in the long run, businesses will need to adapt quickly to softer demand and take advantage of changes in pricing in response to inflation and other factors.

Cost optimization

To sustain growth, companies will need to rethink their broader strategy and adjust expenses accordingly. With this in mind, determining corporate priorities and reducing unproductive expenses will be key. Understanding what is truly important to achieving critical short- and long-term objectives will help to uncover ‘low hanging fruit’ cost reduction opportunities.

Pricing optimization

Consumers will have limited excess cash and therefore may become less likely to make non-discretionary purchases. Be intentional and creative with pricing strategies in a way that provides a benefit to overall margin and enhances consumer willingness to buy. Leveraging analytical tools to set prices on a day-to-day basis in response to changing market dynamics is essential to maintain competitive edge and limit risks to margin.

Go to next page

High interest rates will make it difficult to borrow capital

Strategic initiatives to consider:

Although the Bank of Canada interest rate hikes in 2022 have slowed down the rate of inflation, borrowing rates will remain high in 2023 and beyond. With a greater cost of capital, it will be more difficult for businesses to afford debt financing, hindering their ability to grow both inorganically and organically.

Capital structure strategy

Companies need to rethink their broader strategy to reduce financing costs while maintaining growth. One way they can do this is by changing capital structure from debt financing (which carries higher interest payments) to equity financing to fuel growth. Companies may also be faced with difficulties satisfying the terms of their existing debt obligations. In this case, organizations may seek out alternative lenders with looser covenant structures for short-term ‘breathing room’.

Valuation strategy

Companies must be wary of deal value for acquisitions and other investments that are affected by rising interest rates and higher cost of capital. Valuations will decrease, which means maintaining a healthy balance sheet and pivoting corporate strategies to adapt to market changes—particularly with respect to price, consumer behavior, and international externalities—will be essential for maximizing deal value.

Go to next page

Higher inflation will persist, albeit at lower rates

Strategic initiatives to consider:

Inflation in Canada reached record high rates in 2022, driven by supply chain disruption, post COVID-19 stimulus affects, and labor shortages that continue to elevate costs. Although aggressive lending rate hikes will reduce inflation, businesses must think strategically about how they can be versatile in the highly volatile macro-economic landscape.

Pricing strategy & analytics

Passing on inflated prices to consumers may significantly reduce volumes. With inflation expected to subside, securing decreased cost of goods and holding the line on prices may create an advantage over competitors. Assessing price elasticity and market pricing is therefore key to inform customer pricing strategies.

Cost mitigation strategy

With many commodity prices falling back to near-normal (or new normal) levels, there may be opportunities to negotiate cheaper prices for supply. Leveraging analytics and market information can be used to evaluate current supply costs and identify strategies to get ahead of the market and optimize profits.

Go to next page

80/20 portfolio optimization

Businesses should constantly evaluate product mix to identify and support high performance SKUs while reducing low performance SKUs. Using an 80/20 approach, organizations can achieve strategic focus and simplify operations to enhance their bottom line.

Supply chain irregularities will continue to be the norm

Strategic initiatives to consider:

Throughout 2022, we saw several macro-economic events that led to supply constraints and abnormally high commodity prices. The international conflict in Russia and Ukraine, import and export bans across the globe, and COVID-19-induced labor shortages have all resulted in volatile prices and supply of goods. With many of these disruptive factors persisting through 2023, companies must adapt to a status quo of irregular and often unreliable supply chains.

Inventory and demand planning

During uncertain times, businesses must adapt and limit the financial risks associated with their supply chains. Although stockpiling may secure inventory, it is a costly strategy that may not be feasible during an economic downturn. Businesses should strive to stay lean in their inventory and effectively anticipate demand using analytical tools to optimize working capital and mitigate financial risks.

Risk assessment 

It is crucial to understand where, when, and how each external disruption is occurring and determine the price effect and distribution constraints at stake. Regularly monitoring these events and leveraging analytical tools to assess the financial impacts will enable businesses to oversee supply chain pain points more effectively and will help companies be more resilient to these challenges.

Go to next page

Digitization will become an even stronger imperative for growth

Strategic initiatives to consider:

The acceleration of digitization across the globe has been a channel for innovation and economic growth, increasing production with significant cost saving potential. Since technological advancement often require high capital expenditures, companies need to carefully assess the impact of digital initiatives on their process efficiencies, culture, and balance sheet before developing and executing a digital strategy.

Process optimization analytics and strategy

Optimizing process flow starts by assessing current state efficiencies—all the way from production processes to data entry. Ask key questions such as, are there redundancies in current processes? How much time and labour can automation save? How will digitization improve performance? Automation and AI can expedite processes and eliminate manual and redundant tasks that require human intervention with higher likelihood of errors. 

IT strategy and implementation

Developing a digital roadmap is essential for a smooth and effective transition to attain maximum value. Digital opportunities should be assessed as an investment portfolio. Understanding the current market landscape and prioritizing opportunities based on level of investment, increase in revenue, customer experience, and employee experience will allow organizations to succeed in the implementation of their digital roadmap.

Go to next page

Data will be increasingly leveraged to predict and navigate uncertainty

Strategic initiatives to consider:

The economic landscape of 2023 brings fear of spontaneous externalities affecting performance. As we’ve seen with international conflict and unpredicted interest rates hikes, the market landscape can change on a dime. Inability to adapt will cause businesses to shutter or to suffer detrimentally. In this landscape, it is essential to constantly monitor internal and external changes and have tools designed to make data-driven solutions and fact-based timely decisions.

Automated executive reporting

Executive reporting can often be a burdensome process, requiring time-consuming data aggregation and manual intervention. Automating systems and developing analytical tools can provide business leaders with the insights they need to monitor performance and identify any issues that require attention in a timely manner.

Customer intelligence

As consumer preferences change, external data sources can be leveraged to monitor shifts in economic conditions, spending, and consumption trends. Leveraging analytics to effectively translate this data into meaningful insights and guide strategic decisions can yield positive impacts on business performance.

Go to next page

Cybersecurity will remain critical as technology advances

Strategic initiatives to consider:

The accelerating technological adoption across the globe has correlated with increased security breaches, data leakages, and fraud. With digital transformation there is associated risks of cyber threats that can be detrimental to firms if not controlled. Loss of reputation, exposed sensitive information, and IT destruction are all severe and expensive threats that occur on an ongoing basis. Prioritizing cybersecurity is essential to mitigating these risks and setting a company up for success in their digital journey.

Threat profiling and mitigation strategy

Adopting new technologies can increase your productivity but it also changes your threat profile and how adversaries will target your business. Implementing control points, considering people processes and technology, as well as building and testing cyber response plans, helps your team move quickly in the event of an attack. Begin by determining where your sensitive information is located, identify who has access to information, ensure sensitive data is encrypted, and document information flows so that adequate controls can be enabled to prevent data loss. Testing risk mitigation strategies before a threat occurs ensures these strategies are working as expected.

Post-implementation cyber monitoring 

When introducing new technology, or refining existing technology, it is important to develop a cybersecurity strategy that is monitored on an ongoing basis. Any technology implementation should include a well-structured mitigation plan in the event of a cyber attack. Developing a breach response playbook that addresses which steps to take and which vendor to engage will build resilience and limit the damage of the attack.

Go to next page

M&A activity will continue despite downturn

Strategic initiatives to consider:

Despite rising interest rates and economic uncertainty, there is observed liquidity in the market and the willingness to make deals. Although several factors may continue to slow down M&A activity, much like the first nine months of 2022, effective strategies to optimize deal value for buyers and sellers will lead to a positive thread of M&A transactions. There will be opportunities to overcome challenges through M&A, better positioning people and businesses throughout this year.

Sell-side: Pre-divestiture performance enhancement

Consider pre-divestiture performance enhancement opportunities to gain a preferable valuation and purchase price. While value is created throughout the organization’s lifespan, current market value is determined by investor sentiment on medium and long-term value drivers of the business and industry. Identifying value drivers that will increase the value of the business in the short, medium, and long-term and aligning existing and new strategic initiatives are therefore key to accelerate value creation in the business.

Buy-side: Due diligence

At a time when valuations are nominally low, identifying hidden value, key operational risks, and quantifying EBITDA as well as cash flow improvement opportunities will enable optimal deal value. Recognizing KPIs and metrics, people and organization, revenue engine, cost drivers, operating efficiencies, working capital, and integration synergies will strengthen valuation effectiveness.

Go to next page

Talent and workplace issues will persist

Strategic initiatives to consider:

Over the past two years, many workers moved away from high touch roles in factories, healthcare, retail, and others, putting pressure on production capacity and overall sales. In combination with an aging population, today’s employment landscape continues to create severe challenges to access, retain, and afford quality talent.

HR strategy and talent acquisition

Talent acquisition is costly, which is why a proactive approach to improving employee retention will be key. Increases in compensation may seem like the best channel to satisfy top talent, however, it’s becoming more common for employees to value culture, work-life-balance, and non-monetary benefits above all else. Enhancing HR strategy by implementing feedback sessions, team building exercises, and incentive plans is extremely important for retaining top talent in the current economic landscape.

Talent optimization strategies

With rising interest rates, inflation, and employee wages, many organizations will need to start thinking of ways to optimize costs. From a workforce management standpoint, businesses can assess which job functions require human labour, which roles can be automated, and which job functions are not essential to the organization. Once these factors are identified, companies can begin maximizing employee utilization and productivity by rearranging job functions, leveraging technology, and cutting unnecessary costs.

Go to next page

Companies will face increasing pressure to make ESG commitments

Strategic initiatives to consider:

More and more consumers are actively supporting companies that prioritize ESG initiatives, and this trend will continue to grow in 2023. Investing in sustainable initiatives gives businesses an opportunity to differentiate themselves in the market and attract more customers. 

More than ever before, employees are looking for organizations that focus on ESG factors. With talent retention becoming increasingly difficult, implementing or strengthening existing ESG practices can lower both the risk of losing top talent and overall talent acquisition costs.

ESG assessment and strategy

Businesses should continue investing in ESG initiatives to improve top-line and bottom-line growth, make a positive impact on society, and reduce risk. Businesses should be constantly looking to integrate ESG into their strategy and operations while being able to tell the complete story to customers.

ESG risk mitigation planning

As we enter a period in which ESG is becoming a top priority for society, new governmental regulations may pose a risk to business models and operations. To mitigate this risk, organizations need to anticipate changes on an ongoing basis and put in place the necessary plans to address issues.

Go to next page

ESG due diligence

ESG initiatives have proven to raise deal value. When pursuing an acquisition, it is becoming increasingly important to evaluate potential risks and opportunities tied to a target company’s ESG impact. If not properly assessed pre-close, ESG risks can erode returns.

How can BDO help?

Leaders of intelligent, sustainable organizations adept at navigating uncertainty will succeed in 2023—but doing so won't be easy. BDO experts are here to help your business find those opportunities, manage the risks, and grow despite a challenging business environment.

Connect with us or reach out directly to a member of our advisory team:

Rocco Galletto
Partner, National Cyber Security Leader

BDO Lixar Toronto

416-729-2609

Adam Brown
Partner, Strategy, Value Creation, and Analytics, National Leader, Management Consulting

BDO Toronto

647-730-0926

Pierre Taillefer
Partner, Risk Consulting, National ESG Leader

BDO Montreal

514-944-6738

Michael Morrow
Partner, M&A and Capital Markets

BDO Toronto

416-890-6185

647-408-5395

Shilpa Mishra
Partner, M&A and Capital Markets

BDO Toronto

Top 10 growth & profitability disruptors in 2023

A potential recession, geopolitical instability, and tightening monetary policy are undoubtedly concerns for business leaders as we begin 2023. But opportunities always exist, even in challenging times, and 2023 will be no different.

Businesses must improve their ability to manage uncertainty this year, and successfully address several factors causing disruption in markets. In the face of these disruptors, businesses will need to rethink their strategies and embrace rapid transformation. As we continue to navigate an uneven economy and shifting political winds, we must look to the lessons of last year to help us understand and prepare for what’s ahead.

For the second year in a row, we’ve asked our experts to identify the top 10 disruptive forces that will impact business growth and profitability in the coming year, as well as potential initiatives to combat them.

Consumers will have less discretionary spending

Strategic initiatives to consider:

With an economic slowdown on the horizon, consumer buying patterns will inevitably change. The excess cash that powered consumers over the past year will likely dwindle and their spending will decrease. While interest hikes and decreased spending will put us on a healthier path in the long run, businesses will need to adapt quickly to softer demand and take advantage of changes in pricing in response to inflation and other factors.

Cost optimization

To sustain growth, companies will need to rethink their broader strategy and adjust expenses accordingly. With this in mind, determining corporate priorities and reducing unproductive expenses will be key. Understanding what is truly important to achieving critical short- and long-term objectives will help to uncover ‘low hanging fruit’ cost reduction opportunities.

Pricing optimization

Consumers will have limited excess cash and therefore may become less likely to make non-discretionary purchases. Be intentional and creative with pricing strategies in a way that provides a benefit to overall margin and enhances consumer willingness to buy. Leveraging analytical tools to set prices on a day-to-day basis in response to changing market dynamics is essential to maintain competitive edge and limit risks to margin.

High interest rates will make it difficult to borrow capital

Strategic initiatives to consider:

Although the Bank of Canada interest rate hikes in 2022 have slowed down the rate of inflation, borrowing rates will remain high in 2023 and beyond. With a greater cost of capital, it will be more difficult for businesses to afford debt financing, hindering their ability to grow both inorganically and organically.

Capital structure strategy

Companies need to rethink their broader strategy to reduce financing costs while maintaining growth. One way they can do this is by changing capital structure from debt financing (which carries higher interest payments) to equity financing to fuel growth. Companies may also be faced with difficulties satisfying the terms of their existing debt obligations. In this case, organizations may seek out alternative lenders with looser covenant structures for short-term ‘breathing room’.

Valuation strategy

Companies must be wary of deal value for acquisitions and other investments that are affected by rising interest rates and higher cost of capital. Valuations will decrease, which means maintaining a healthy balance sheet and pivoting corporate strategies to adapt to market changes—particularly with respect to price, consumer behavior, and international externalities—will be essential for maximizing deal value.

Higher inflation will persist, albeit at lower rates

Strategic initiatives to consider:

Inflation in Canada reached record high rates in 2022, driven by supply chain disruption, post COVID-19 stimulus affects, and labor shortages that continue to elevate costs. Although aggressive lending rate hikes will reduce inflation, businesses must think strategically about how they can be versatile in the highly volatile macro-economic landscape.

Pricing strategy & analytics

Passing on inflated prices to consumers may significantly reduce volumes. With inflation expected to subside, securing decreased cost of goods and holding the line on prices may create an advantage over competitors. Assessing price elasticity and market pricing is therefore key to inform customer pricing strategies.

Cost mitigation strategy

With many commodity prices falling back to near-normal (or new normal) levels, there may be opportunities to negotiate cheaper prices for supply. Leveraging analytics and market information can be used to evaluate current supply costs and identify strategies to get ahead of the market and optimize profits.

80/20 portfolio optimization

Businesses should constantly evaluate product mix to identify and support high performance SKUs while reducing low performance SKUs. Using an 80/20 approach, organizations can achieve strategic focus and simplify operations to enhance their bottom line.

Supply chain irregularities will continue to be the norm

Strategic initiatives to consider:

Throughout 2022, we saw several macro-economic events that led to supply constraints and abnormally high commodity prices. The international conflict in Russia and Ukraine, import and export bans across the globe, and COVID-19-induced labor shortages have all resulted in volatile prices and supply of goods. With many of these disruptive factors persisting through 2023, companies must adapt to a status quo of irregular and often unreliable supply chains.

Inventory and demand planning

During uncertain times, businesses must adapt and limit the financial risks associated with their supply chains. Although stockpiling may secure inventory, it is a costly strategy that may not be feasible during an economic downturn. Businesses should strive to stay lean in their inventory and effectively anticipate demand using analytical tools to optimize working capital and mitigate financial risks.

Risk assessment 

It is crucial to understand where, when, and how each external disruption is occurring and determine the price effect and distribution constraints at stake. Regularly monitoring these events and leveraging analytical tools to assess the financial impacts will enable businesses to oversee supply chain pain points more effectively and will help companies be more resilient to these challenges.

Digitization will become an even stronger imperative for growth

Strategic initiatives to consider:

The acceleration of digitization across the globe has been a channel for innovation and economic growth, increasing production with significant cost saving potential. Since technological advancement often require high capital expenditures, companies need to carefully assess the impact of digital initiatives on their process efficiencies, culture, and balance sheet before developing and executing a digital strategy.

Process optimization analytics and strategy

Optimizing process flow starts by assessing current state efficiencies—all the way from production processes to data entry. Ask key questions such as, are there redundancies in current processes? How much time and labour can automation save? How will digitization improve performance? Automation and AI can expedite processes and eliminate manual and redundant tasks that require human intervention with higher likelihood of errors. 

IT strategy and implementation

Developing a digital roadmap is essential for a smooth and effective transition to attain maximum value. Digital opportunities should be assessed as an investment portfolio. Understanding the current market landscape and prioritizing opportunities based on level of investment, increase in revenue, customer experience, and employee experience will allow organizations to succeed in the implementation of their digital roadmap.

Data will be increasingly leveraged to predict and navigate uncertainty

Strategic initiatives to consider:

The economic landscape of 2023 brings fear of spontaneous externalities affecting performance. As we’ve seen with international conflict and unpredicted interest rates hikes, the market landscape can change on a dime. Inability to adapt will cause businesses to shutter or to suffer detrimentally. In this landscape, it is essential to constantly monitor internal and external changes and have tools designed to make data-driven solutions and fact-based timely decisions.

Automated executive reporting

Executive reporting can often be a burdensome process, requiring time-consuming data aggregation and manual intervention. Automating systems and developing analytical tools can provide business leaders with the insights they need to monitor performance and identify any issues that require attention in a timely manner.

Customer intelligence

As consumer preferences change, external data sources can be leveraged to monitor shifts in economic conditions, spending, and consumption trends. Leveraging analytics to effectively translate this data into meaningful insights and guide strategic decisions can yield positive impacts on business performance.

Cybersecurity will remain critical as technology advances

Strategic initiatives to consider:

The accelerating technological adoption across the globe has correlated with increased security breaches, data leakages, and fraud. With digital transformation there is associated risks of cyber threats that can be detrimental to firms if not controlled. Loss of reputation, exposed sensitive information, and IT destruction are all severe and expensive threats that occur on an ongoing basis. Prioritizing cybersecurity is essential to mitigating these risks and setting a company up for success in their digital journey.

Threat profiling and mitigation strategy

Adopting new technologies can increase your productivity but it also changes your threat profile and how adversaries will target your business. Implementing control points, considering people processes and technology, as well as building and testing cyber response plans, helps your team move quickly in the event of an attack. Begin by determining where your sensitive information is located, identify who has access to information, ensure sensitive data is encrypted, and document information flows so that adequate controls can be enabled to prevent data loss. Testing risk mitigation strategies before a threat occurs ensures these strategies are working as expected.

Post-implementation cyber monitoring 

When introducing new technology, or refining existing technology, it is important to develop a cybersecurity strategy that is monitored on an ongoing basis. Any technology implementation should include a well-structured mitigation plan in the event of a cyber attack. Developing a breach response playbook that addresses which steps to take and which vendor to engage will build resilience and limit the damage of the attack.

M&A activity will continue despite downturn

Strategic initiatives to consider:

Despite rising interest rates and economic uncertainty, there is observed liquidity in the market and the willingness to make deals. Although several factors may continue to slow down M&A activity, much like the first nine months of 2022, effective strategies to optimize deal value for buyers and sellers will lead to a positive thread of M&A transactions. There will be opportunities to overcome challenges through M&A, better positioning people and businesses throughout this year.

Sell-side: Pre-divestiture performance enhancement

Consider pre-divestiture performance enhancement opportunities to gain a preferable valuation and purchase price. While value is created throughout the organization’s lifespan, current market value is determined by investor sentiment on medium and long-term value drivers of the business and industry. Identifying value drivers that will increase the value of the business in the short, medium, and long-term and aligning existing and new strategic initiatives are therefore key to accelerate value creation in the business.

Buy-side: Due diligence

At a time when valuations are nominally low, identifying hidden value, key operational risks, and quantifying EBITDA as well as cash flow improvement opportunities will enable optimal deal value. Recognizing KPIs and metrics, people and organization, revenue engine, cost drivers, operating efficiencies, working capital, and integration synergies will strengthen valuation effectiveness.

Talent and workplace issues will persist

Strategic initiatives to consider:

Over the past two years, many workers moved away from high touch roles in factories, healthcare, retail, and others, putting pressure on production capacity and overall sales. In combination with an aging population, today’s employment landscape continues to create severe challenges to access, retain, and afford quality talent.

HR strategy and talent acquisition

Talent acquisition is costly, which is why a proactive approach to improving employee retention will be key. Increases in compensation may seem like the best channel to satisfy top talent, however, it’s becoming more common for employees to value culture, work-life-balance, and non-monetary benefits above all else. Enhancing HR strategy by implementing feedback sessions, team building exercises, and incentive plans is extremely important for retaining top talent in the current economic landscape.

Talent optimization strategies

With rising interest rates, inflation, and employee wages, many organizations will need to start thinking of ways to optimize costs. From a workforce management standpoint, businesses can assess which job functions require human labour, which roles can be automated, and which job functions are not essential to the organization. Once these factors are identified, companies can begin maximizing employee utilization and productivity by rearranging job functions, leveraging technology, and cutting unnecessary costs.

Companies will face increasing pressure to make ESG commitments

Strategic initiatives to consider:

More and more consumers are actively supporting companies that prioritize ESG initiatives, and this trend will continue to grow in 2023. Investing in sustainable initiatives gives businesses an opportunity to differentiate themselves in the market and attract more customers. 

More than ever before, employees are looking for organizations that focus on ESG factors. With talent retention becoming increasingly difficult, implementing or strengthening existing ESG practices can lower both the risk of losing top talent and overall talent acquisition costs.

ESG assessment and strategy

Businesses should continue investing in ESG initiatives to improve top-line and bottom-line growth, make a positive impact on society, and reduce risk. Businesses should be constantly looking to integrate ESG into their strategy and operations while being able to tell the complete story to customers.

ESG risk mitigation planning

As we enter a period in which ESG is becoming a top priority for society, new governmental regulations may pose a risk to business models and operations. To mitigate this risk, organizations need to anticipate changes on an ongoing basis and put in place the necessary plans to address issues.

Connect with us or reach out directly to a member of our advisory team:

How can BDO help?

Leaders of intelligent, sustainable organizations adept at navigating uncertainty will succeed in 2023—but doing so won't be easy. BDO experts are here to help your business find those opportunities, manage the risks, and grow despite a challenging business environment.

Rocco Galletto
Partner, National Cyber Security Leader

BDO Lixar Toronto

416-729-2609

Adam Brown
Partner, Strategy, Value Creation, and Analytics, National Leader, Management Consulting

BDO Toronto

647-730-0926

Pierre Taillefer
Partner, Risk Consulting, National ESG Leader

BDO Montreal

514-944-6738

Michael Morrow
Partner, M&A and Capital Markets

BDO Toronto

416-890-6185

647-408-5395

Shilpa Mishra
Partner, M&A and Capital Markets

BDO Toronto

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